NBA: Top Weekend Power Trends 1/9-1/11
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2009-01-09
Some of the league’s top teams have lost some steam over the past week or two in the NBA. Cleveland, Boston, Orlando and Los Angeles have all shown some of that “disinterest” that seems to affect the pro’s around this time of the year. However, that doesn’t take any of the luster off of the showdown set for Friday night in Cleveland between the Celtics and Cavaliers. That game is just one of many intriguing contests on tap for this weekend in the NBA. Here’s a quick look at some of the action along with a set of Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider.
On Friday night, the stage is set for the showdown in Cleveland. The Cavs and Lebron James are unbeaten at home, 18-0 SU & 14-4 ATS while outscoring opponents by 16.6 PPG. However, they’ve lost outright twice in their last four games and are on a 2-4 ATS skid. However, starting with the Christmas defeat in L.A., the Celtics are on a 2-6 SU & ATS slide themselves and have failed to reach the 90-point mark five times during that stretch. In any case, with the top spot on the line in the Eastern Conference, it should still be a great game. Elsewhere on Friday, the leaders in the Southeast Division will collide for the second time in three days. Orlando pulled the upset in Atlanta on Wednesday and the Hawks will be looking to return the favor in Mickey Mouse Land. Out west, the Pistons start a difficult Friday-Saturday back-to-back when they take on Denver, now without the services of Carmelo Anthony. A bit later, Dallas, winners of eight of their L10 games, will travel to Phoenix.
On Saturday, the betting board in light in the NBA with just six games, and only one of the games involves two teams that are considered playoff contenders. That contest is in Utah, where the Jazz will look for an 8th straight win over the Pistons in the head-to-head series. Take a look at what readers of this week’s StatFox Platinum Sheet were told about this game:
1/10/2009 - (509) DETROIT at (510) UTAH
I was fortunate to get a Best Bet win a few weeks back when Utah outscored Detroit in the overtime period to win up in the Motor City. However, for the same reason I liked the Jazz then, I’ll go back to them here. They just seem to have a hex over the Pistons, winning seven straight games in the head-to-head series. They are the only team in the NBA that can make such a claim against one of the league’s premiere teams in recent years. The Pistons, somewhat like their Central rival, the Bulls, have changed for the worse under Micheal Curry. Defense seems to be secondary, and that doesn’t get it done against teams like Utah, that can be relied upon to cover two out of every three games as a home favorite on average (40-20 ATS over L2 seasons). Play: Utah minus the points
Finally, on Sunday, seven games grace the schedule, spanning nearly the entire day. Boston visits Toronto at 12:35 PM ET to start it all off. However, the best games will come in the evening when Orlando visits San Antonio, and Miami travels to L.A. to take on the Lakers. The Magic, 13-5 SU & ATS on the road in ’08-09, start a four game Wetsern Conference trip with that contest. The Spurs are heating up, winners of nine of their L10 games heading into the weekend. Kobe & Co. will be looking to avenge an 89-87 setback in South Beach last month, but the Heat always seem to play the Lakers well.
Now, here’s a look at those Top StatFox Power Trends alluded to earlier.
Friday, 1/9/2009
(805) CHARLOTTE vs. (806) PHILADELPHIA
CHARLOTTE is 1-13 ATS (-13.3 Units) vs. terrible 3PT shooting teams -making <=30% of their attempts since 1996. The average score was CHARLOTTE 92, OPPONENT 102.5 - (Rating = 2*)
(807) BOSTON vs. (88) CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) vs. good shooting teams making >=46% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 94.4, OPPONENT 92.2 - (Rating = 2*)
(811) LA CLIPPERS vs. (812) NEW ORLEANS
LA CLIPPERS are 11-29 ATS (-20.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 90.9, OPPONENT 103.2 - (Rating = 2*)
(817) DETROIT vs. (818) DENVER
DETROIT is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) vs. teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 95.9, OPPONENT 90.1 - (Rating = 2*)
(821) INDIANA vs. (822) LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 25-10 ATS (+14 Units) vs. up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the L2 seasons. The average score was LA LAKERS 114.6, OPPONENT 103.9 - (Rating = 2*)
Saturday, 1/10/2009
(501) CHARLOTTE vs. (502) WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons. The average score was WASHINGTON 97.3, OPPONENT 98.9 - (Rating = 2*)
(509) DETROIT vs. (510) UTAH
UTAH is 40-20 ATS (+18 Units) as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was UTAH 107.1, OPPONENT 94.8 - (Rating = 2*)
(511) GOLDEN STATE vs. (512) PORTLAND
GOLDEN STATE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) vs. poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 TOs/game this season. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 103.6, OPPONENT 113.6 - (Rating = 3*)
(511) GOLDEN STATE vs. (512) PORTLAND
PORTLAND is 35-17 UNDER (+16.3 Units) vs. good offensive teams - scoring 99+ PPG over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PORTLAND 96.8, OPPONENT 98.8 - (Rating = 2*)
Sunday, 1/11/2009
(81) BOSTON vs. (802) TORONTO
BOSTON is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was BOSTON 104.8, OPPONENT 90.8 - (Rating = 4*)
(805) PHOENIX vs. (806) LA CLIPPERS
LA CLIPPERS are 18-5 UNDER (+12.5 Units) at home vs. good 3PT shooting teams (>=36%) over the last 2 seasons. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 89.7, OPPONENT 94.4 - (Rating = 2*)
(809) INDIANA vs. (810) GOLDEN STATE
GOLDEN STATE is 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) at home vs. poor defensive teams allowing 99+ PPG over the L2 seasons. The average score was GOLDEN STATE 114.5, OPPONENT 110.8 - (Rating = 2*)